Durham, NC
Durham-Chapel Hill, NC metro area. 344,020 workers.
Cognitive exposure (generative AI)
Work like writing, sorting information, answering questions and handling records.
57
7 points above the US averageTop fifth of metros for cognitive exposure
Shaded: the middle 80% of metros (43 to 52); each tick above is one metro. The typical metro scores 47, not exactly 50, because 50 is the average US job, not the average metro.
36% of workers are in high-exposure jobs on this measure. US: about 25%.
Physical exposure (robotics and autonomy)
Work like driving, moving goods, running machines and repetitive handling.
48
about the US averageBottom fifth of metros for physical exposure
Shaded: the middle 80% of metros (48 to 56); each tick above is one metro. The typical metro scores 51, not exactly 50, because 50 is the average US job, not the average metro.
20% of workers are in high-exposure jobs on this measure. US: about 25%.
- Workers in jobs high on either measure
- 56%
- US: about 49%. Counted once even when a job is high on both.
- Share of local pay earned in those jobs
- 60%
- About $13.6 billion a year, out of all pay in the jobs counted here.
Based on 87% of local jobs. The rest are in occupations where the government withholds small counts for privacy, or where no exposure score exists.
Federal wage data (OEWS) leaves out self-employed workers, private household workers, and most farms that hire directly, so farm-heavy metros are undercounted.
Jobs with the most exposed work
Ranked by how many people do the job here and how exposed the work is. Scores are 0 to 100 against all US jobs; 75 or higher counts as high exposure. Concentration compares the job's share of local work with its share nationally: 2.0x means twice as common here.
| Occupation | Mostly | Cognitive | Physical | Workers | Average pay | Concentration |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Software DevelopersSOC 15-1252 | Cognitive | 76 | 33 | 9,790 | $148,390 | 2.6x |
| Medical Secretaries and Administrative AssistantsSOC 43-6013 | Cognitive | 94 | 17 | 5,820 | $46,540 | 2.7x |
| Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, HandSOC 53-7062 | Physical | 3 | 99 | 5,250 | $37,260 | 0.8x |
| Customer Service RepresentativesSOC 43-4051 | Cognitive | 97 | 62 | 4,660 | $47,060 | 0.8x |
| Cooks, Fast FoodSOC 35-2011 | Physical | 15 | 87 | 4,520 | $29,290 | 3.2x |
| Fast Food and Counter WorkersSOC 35-3023 | Physical | 26 | 71 | 5,350 | $30,280 | 0.6x |
| Computer and Information Systems ManagersSOC 11-3021 | Cognitive | 86 | 32 | 4,170 | $191,930 | 2.8x |
| Nursing AssistantsSOC 31-1131 | Physical | 20 | 73 | 4,830 | $42,540 | 1.5x |
| CashiersSOC 41-2011 | Physical | 48 | 68 | 4,840 | $31,390 | 0.7x |
| Office Clerks, GeneralSOC 43-9061 | Cognitive | 78 | 57 | 4,180 | $45,480 | 0.8x |
| Business Operations Specialists, All OtherSOC 13-1199 | Cognitive | 84 | 34 | 3,830 | $97,650 | 1.6x |
| Retail SalespersonsSOC 41-2031 | Physical | 52 | 54 | 5,850 | $34,360 | 0.7x |
| Stockers and Order FillersSOC 53-7065 | Physical | 29 | 83 | 3,690 | $38,110 | 0.6x |
| Sales Representatives of Services, Except Advertising, Insurance, Financial Services, and TravelSOC 41-3091 | Cognitive | 92 | 28 | 3,300 | $93,180 | 1.2x |
| Accountants and AuditorsSOC 13-2011 | Cognitive | 91 | 26 | 3,060 | $98,060 | 0.9x |
Exposure by occupation group
Average exposure of the work in each broad job family, shown separately for each measure. The same group can be high on one and low on the other.
| Occupation group | Share of workers | Exposure index, 0 to 100 |
|---|---|---|
| Office and Administrative Support | 11.0% of workers | Cognitive83 Physical45 |
| Business and Financial Operations | 9.0% of workers | Cognitive86 Physical28 |
| Management | 8.9% of workers | Cognitive76 Physical36 |
| Computer and Mathematical | 8.3% of workers | Cognitive83 Physical41 |
| Food Preparation and Serving Related | 8.3% of workers | Cognitive24 Physical70 |
| Sales and Related | 7.9% of workers | Cognitive68 Physical49 |
| Transportation and Material Moving | 6.1% of workers | Cognitive19 Physical89 |
| Educational Instruction and Library | 5.5% of workers | Cognitive65 Physical32 |
| Healthcare Practitioners and Technical | 5.4% of workers | Cognitive48 Physical32 |
| Healthcare Support | 3.9% of workers | Cognitive28 Physical39 |
| Production | 3.6% of workers | Cognitive21 Physical87 |
| Life, Physical, and Social Science | 3.4% of workers | Cognitive76 Physical60 |
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair | 3.2% of workers | Cognitive21 Physical39 |
| Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance | 2.8% of workers | Cognitive9 Physical79 |
| Architecture and Engineering | 2.5% of workers | Cognitive72 Physical63 |
| Construction and Extraction | 2.4% of workers | Cognitive19 Physical59 |
| Personal Care and Service | 1.9% of workers | Cognitive37 Physical38 |
| Protective Service | 1.9% of workers | Cognitive35 Physical35 |
| Community and Social Service | 1.8% of workers | Cognitive64 Physical11 |
| Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media | 1.4% of workers | Cognitive75 Physical40 |
| Legal | 0.7% of workers | Cognitive81 Physical26 |
| Farming, Fishing, and Forestry | 0.0% of workers | Cognitive7 Physical97 |
What's happening here
Local developments tied to AI and automation, gathered from public reporting. Each one links to its source and shows when it was last checked.
No local signals have been collected for this metro yet. Signals are researched by hand and added for full-profile metros first. If you know of a data center proposal, an employer AI rollout or a local policy, it belongs here once it has a public source.
Sources
Where every number on this page comes from, and how current it is.
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS), metropolitan areas, May 2025, Public domain (US government work)
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, national estimates, May 2025 (released 2026), US federal government work, public domain
- Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure, 2023 paper (Science 2024); repo commit dated 2025-10-04, MIT
- Felten, Raj, Seamans (2021), AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE), Data Appendix A, 2021 (Strategic Management Journal 42(12)); repo commit dated 2024-06-03, No license file in repo; published research data, cite Felten, Raj, Seamans (2021)
- BLS SOC 2010 to SOC 2018 crosswalk, November 2017, US federal government work, public domain
- O*NET Occupational Listings (taxonomy crosswalks, incl. O*NET-SOC 2010 to 2019), O*NET-SOC 2019 taxonomy (file dated 2019-12-04), CC BY 4.0, O*NET 31.0 Database by the U.S. Department of Labor, Employment and Training Administration (USDOL/ETA)
- O*NET 31.0 Database, Work Activities, O*NET 31.0, CC BY 4.0, O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA
- O*NET 31.0 Database, Work Context, O*NET 31.0, CC BY 4.0, O*NET 31.0 Database by USDOL/ETA
- Webb (2020), "The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market", raw occupation exposure scores (final_df_out.dta), Data page "Version 0.1" raw scores (964 O*NET-SOC 2010 occupations, O*NET 22.0); paper working draft January 2020, No license stated. Published by the author for research use on his data page (linked from michaelwebb.co); cite Webb (2020). The page warns the numbers are a work in progress.
- Webb (2020), exposure percentiles by occ1990dd, v0.2 (exposure_by_occ1990dd_lswt2010.csv), Data page "Version 0.2", No license stated; cite Webb (2020)
- Webb (2020), O*NET-SOC to occ1990dd crosswalk (onet_to_occ1990dd.dta), Data page "Version 0.1" crosswalks (Dorn occ1990dd as augmented by Deming), No license stated; cite Webb (2020)
- Anthropic Economic Index, release 2026-06-26 (Claude.ai, global, soc_occupation), Claude.ai conversations, April and May 2026 (release 2026-06-26), CC BY (data)
- Employment and wages
- May 2025
- Exposure measures
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, national estimates: May 2025 (released 2026); Eloundou, Manning, Mishkin, Rock (2023), "GPTs are GPTs", occupation-level exposure: 2023 paper (Science 2024); repo commit dated 2025-10-04; Felten, Raj, Seamans (2021), AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE), Data Appendix A: 2021 (Strategic Management Journal 42(12)); repo commit dated 2024-06-03; BLS SOC 2010 to SOC 2018 crosswalk: November 2017; O*NET Occupational Listings (taxonomy crosswalks, incl. O*NET-SOC 2010 to 2019): O*NET-SOC 2019 taxonomy (file dated 2019-12-04); O*NET 31.0 Database, Work Activities: O*NET 31.0; O*NET 31.0 Database, Work Context: O*NET 31.0; Webb (2020), "The Impact of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market", raw occupation exposure scores (final_df_out.dta): Data page "Version 0.1" raw scores (964 O*NET-SOC 2010 occupations, O*NET 22.0); paper working draft January 2020; Webb (2020), exposure percentiles by occ1990dd, v0.2 (exposure_by_occ1990dd_lswt2010.csv): Data page "Version 0.2"; Webb (2020), O*NET-SOC to occ1990dd crosswalk (onet_to_occ1990dd.dta): Data page "Version 0.1" crosswalks (Dorn occ1990dd as augmented by Deming); Anthropic Economic Index, release 2026-06-26 (Claude.ai, global, soc_occupation): Claude.ai conversations, April and May 2026 (release 2026-06-26)
- Census survey
- Not used for this metro
- Profile generated
- Nov 5, 2026